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Housing Affordability

Analysing the state of the Australian market through prices, serviceability and rental cost pressure.

National Market-Entry Affordability Score
Relative index, not household stress

Higher = easier market entry relative to 2012-2025 history. It is not the share of households who can afford housing.

Modelled national score for entering ownership or renting. It combines mortgage serviceability, rental cost pressure and deposit barriers. Component weights are judgement weights, not causal estimates. Not an official ABS/NHHA statistic or lender assessment. The score is published only for quarters with all three components, so it can lag the semiannual AWE wage input.

Component scores and weighted contribution

Mortgage = monthly repayment burden Rental = rent pressure relative to wages Deposit = upfront saving barrier

Official SIH/NHHA burden snapshot

Observed household burden measures from SIH/NHHA, kept separate from the stylised market-entry score.

National Mean Dwelling Price

Highest Capital Median Price

Modelled Serviceability

Stylised mortgage scenario

Rental Affordability

Capital City Median House Prices

City lines are ABS 6432.0 capital-city median established-house transfer prices; the dashed national line is the whole-of-Australia mean price across all dwelling types. Mean and median levels are not directly comparable - read the national line as context, not as another city.

Affordability Indices

Price Trends

State mean dwelling price indexes, capital-city median prices and ABS rent CPI movements.

Dwelling Prices by Geography

ABS dwelling price data. Price series describe market price movements, not household affordability or borrowing capacity. Index transform rebases every selected series at the first quarter they all cover.

Rent Consumer Price Index (CPI) by Greater Capital City

ABS CPI rents are price indexes. They measure rental price movements, not the housing cost burden of lower-income renters.

Source: ABS - Consumer Price Index, Australia

Affordability

Official SIH burden measures first, followed by market-entry scenarios and diagnostic indexes.

Affordability Analysis
Housing Cost Stress Bands (2019-20)

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. Official survey-based housing cost burden bands by household group. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Housing Cost-to-Income Ratio by Tenure & Demographics (2019-20)

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. Gross-income housing cost ratios by tenure and demographic group. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Distributional Stress Explorer

Official SIH/NHHA burden measure with SIH reliability markers where available. This surface is not modelled market-entry analysis. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Affordability Indicators

Cost-pressure indexes; higher = less affordable. Market-entry measures use wage, price and rate proxies, not official ABS stress definitions.

Modelled Serviceability

Modelled annual repayment share using selected deposit, implied LVR, loan term and RBA mortgage-rate inputs; uses AWE individual earnings as the income proxy. The 30% line is a stress reference, not a lender pass/fail rule. Stylised scenario, not an official ABS measure or lender assessment.

Monthly Repayment Stylised
Nominal Repayment / Gross Income Stylised
Assessed Repayment / Gross Income Stylised
Years to Save Deposit Stylised
Loan-to-Value Ratio Stylised
Total Interest Paid Stylised
Deposit Amount Stylised
Scenario Sensitivity

Stylised sensitivity chart. Higher values mean a larger expense-adjusted repayment burden; it is not an official ABS/NHHA measure or lender assessment.

Borrowing capacity (stylised)

Illustrative serviceability-constrained borrowing capacity: the largest loan whose repayment at the assessed rate (rate + buffer) stays within the chosen share of gross income, less any other debt, and the dwelling price it reaches at the selected deposit. A flat repayment-to-income rule, not a lender's HEM/DTI/net-surplus model, credit decision or approval - and not an official ABS measure.

Max Loan (assessed rate) Stylised
Implied Max Dwelling Price Stylised
Deposit Needed at That Price Stylised

Weekly Rent

Rent / Gross Income

Rent / Expense-Adjusted Income

Upfront Cash Required

Years to Save Upfront Costs

Weeks to Save Upfront Costs

Rental entry interpretation

This pathway estimates rental cash-flow pressure and upfront entry costs from user assumptions.

It does not use NHHA stress definitions, advertised-rent data or tenancy eligibility rules.

Recent Buyers

Official SIH File 9 evidence on recent home buyers: dwelling values, mortgages, equity and household profiles by buyer type, alongside timely ABS lending aggregates on new first home buyer loans.

Financial Characteristics by Buyer Type

ABS Survey of Income and Housing File 9. Values describe 2019-20 recent buyer households and should be read separately from stylised deposit/serviceability scenarios. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Household Profile by Buyer Type

Share of recent buyer households in each band (total dwellings). First-home and changeover buyer profiles are official SIH File 9 proportions. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

First Home Buyer Lending (Timely Official Aggregates)

ABS 5601.0 Lending Indicators Table 24: new owner-occupier first home buyer loan commitments, Australia, seasonally adjusted, quarterly. Official lending aggregates describing a flow of new commitments - not the SIH household stock above, and not a modelled scenario.

Geographic Affordability

SIH-only comparisons where housing costs and household-income denominators are measured within the same geography.

State SIH Cost-to-Income Trend

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. These are geography-aligned SIH survey measures; not modelled market-entry indexes. Trend uses File 12 state/territory SIH estimates. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Latest State Comparison

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. These are geography-aligned SIH survey measures; not modelled market-entry indexes. Latest available survey year from the state SIH series. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Lower-Income State Burden

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. These are geography-aligned SIH survey measures; not modelled market-entry indexes. Lower-income household estimates from SIH File 8. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Capital City / Rest-of-State Comparison

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. These are geography-aligned SIH survey measures; not modelled market-entry indexes. Greater-capital-city and rest-of-state estimates from SIH File 11. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Labour & Demographics

Analysing the state of the Australian market through rates, labour spare capacity, household balance sheets and population demand.

Unemployment Rate

Trend estimate

Net Overseas Migration

Annual estimate

Labour Underutilisation

Trend estimate

Household Debt to Income

RBA E2, debt to annual disposable income

Interest Rates on Residential Mortgages

RBA mortgage rates are market-rate inputs, not lender assessment outcomes or household serviceability approvals.

Labour Market Spare Capacity

ABS labour force rates. KPI changes are percentage-point changes, not relative percentage changes.

Population Demand

ABS population data. Net overseas migration is shown as an annualised flow in thousands.

Housing Supply

Building activity and construction costs across approvals, dwelling mix and construction-cost pressure.

Selected Approvals

Largest Selected Jurisdiction

Construction Costs

CPI New Dwelling Index

Houses Share

% of total approvals (national)

Building Approvals

ABS building approvals. Approval counts are supply pipeline indicators, not completed dwellings. State, building type and sector controls filter the same ABS series rather than changing methodology.

CPI New Dwelling Purchase (Construction Cost)

ABS CPI new dwelling purchase is a construction-cost price index, not a household burden measure.

Rental Market

NHHA rental stress, rental cost pressure and SIH rental-cost survey estimates.

NHHA Rental Stress by State

ABS Survey of Income and Housing, NHHA lower-income renter stress. Official survey burden/stress measure. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

NHHA Rental Stress Trends (Over Time)

ABS Survey of Income and Housing, NHHA lower-income renter stress. Values are proportions of lower-income renter households. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Rental Affordability Index

Cost-pressure index using ABS CPI rents and WPI; higher = less affordable.

Rent Inflation (Monthly CPI Indicator)

Year-ended growth in the seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rents index, weighted average of the eight capital cities. A stock-of-rents price signal including existing tenancies - not advertised or new-lease rents; rest-of-state areas are not covered.

Rental Costs and Burden by Demographics (2019-20)

ABS Survey of Income and Housing. Use the measure selector to separate nominal weekly rent from rent-to-gross-income burden. SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Methodology & Provenance

Indicator definitions, source series and interpretation caveats.

Download Methodology Summary
Official SIH/NHHA burden measures

ABS Survey of Income and Housing measures describe observed household housing costs, gross-income cost ratios and NHHA lower-income renter stress.

These are official survey burden and stress measures, separate from price-index or market-entry proxy indicators.

The Overview official burden snapshot surfaces selected SIH/NHHA measures beside the stylised market-entry score.

SIH 2019-20 remains the latest official cross-section because the ABS cancelled the SIH 2023-24 release on data-quality grounds (renter households were under-represented in the sample); the next cycle, SIH 2025-26, is in the field with results expected around 2027.

SIH estimates are survey estimates; relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are saved in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv, and users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.

Recent buyer empirical evidence

The Recent Buyers page uses data/sih_recent_buyers_2020.csv from SIH File 9 to describe 2019-20 first-home, changeover and all recent buyer households.

These survey estimates ground the deposit and serviceability discussion, but they are not live market-entry indexes.

Rental entry calculator pathway outputs are stylised cash-flow scenarios, not official ABS/NHHA stress measures or tenancy eligibility assessments.

Market-entry cost-pressure indexes

Derived dashboard indicators use prices, wages, rents and rates to summarise cost pressure over time.

Higher values generally mean less affordable unless the table states otherwise. These are analytical indexes, not official ABS affordability measures.

National Housing Affordability Score

The National Housing Affordability Score is a descriptive composite indicator for national market-entry affordability.

The v2 score uses fixed 40/35/25 weights (unchanged from v1) for mortgage serviceability, rental entry and deposit barrier component scores. Component weights are transparent judgement weights, not causal estimates.

Higher values mean more affordable relative to a frozen 2012-2025 reference window; it is not an official ABS/NHHA statistic or lender assessment.

v2 normalises each component against the frozen reference window, so published score history no longer changes as new quarters arrive. The reference window only changes with a methodology version bump; upstream ABS/RBA input revisions can still revise history and are disclosed here.

The v2 mortgage serviceability input is an indexed 30-year principal-and-interest repayment burden at 80 per cent LVR, using RBA F6 actual new-loan owner-occupier rates spliced onto level-adjusted F5 history before July 2019.

The score is published only for quarters where all three components are available. Average Weekly Earnings is released twice a year, so the latest score can sit one or two quarters behind the most recent component data; the Overview card shows the score's own as-at date.

Plain English Interpretation

A low score means market-entry conditions are poor relative to the score history; it is not a pass/fail affordability threshold.

A high score does not mean housing is affordable for all households, and the score is not the share of households who can afford housing.

Official SIH/NHHA stress measures remain separate because they measure observed household burden, not market-entry conditions.

Rental-entry stress may be understated relative to advertised-rent or new-lease evidence because the score uses public index-style inputs rather than a direct new-tenancy rent series.

Stylised scenario calculators

Serviceability, deposit-gap and calculator outputs use fixed modelling assumptions for a stylised household.

The deposit-gap series assumes a 20 per cent deposit on the ABS 6432.0 national mean dwelling price, saved at 15 per cent of gross income, with income proxied by AWE individual earnings rather than household income.

These stylised scenarios are not official ABS measures or lender assessments.

R/market_entry_scenarios.R defines the app-only market-entry scenarios used by the calculator and assessed-rate sensitivity chart.

The calculator now separates ownership serviceability from the rental entry calculator pathway so rent, bond and upfront moving costs are not presented as mortgage calculations.

Assessment buffer and expense inputs are sensitivity assumptions, not a lender assessment.

Deposit, LVR and loan-term controls are stylised serviceability assumptions; the serviceability chart uses AWE individual earnings as the income proxy.

Score Diagnostics

The score is a historical-relative monitoring index, not an absolute affordability threshold.

A score near 0 or 100 is low or high versus the score window, not a statement that housing is affordable or unaffordable for all households.

Mortgage serviceability and deposit barrier have an ownership-channel overlap, but the score keeps both because they describe monthly servicing versus upfront deposit constraints.

Sensitivity diagnostics compare equal weights, ownership-heavy weights, rental-heavy weights, leave-one-out variants and geometric aggregation.

Quality & Coverage

Indicator confidence groups separate official survey measures, derived indexes, stylised scenarios and context series.

Release Confidence

Read-only release confidence uses saved CSVs, data vintage metadata and the public release checklist; it does not refresh ABS or RBA data inside the app.

Derived Indicator Registry

The table is generated from R/indicator_registry.R. The provenance chain is pipeline/05_driver.R -> pipeline/06_validate_outputs.R -> data/*.csv -> R/indicator_registry.R -> dashboard labels.

Economic Caveats
  • AWE is individual earnings, not household disposable income.
  • WPI is a wage price index, not an income distribution measure.
  • CPI rents and CPI new dwelling indexes are price indexes, not household burden measures.
  • Rental-entry stress may be understated relative to advertised-rent or new-lease evidence because the score uses public index-style inputs.
  • Assessment buffer and expense inputs are sensitivity assumptions, not a lender assessment.
  • Deposit, LVR and loan-term controls are stylised serviceability assumptions; the serviceability chart uses AWE individual earnings as the income proxy.
  • KPI colours encode economic interpretation as better, worse or neutral/contextual rather than raw up/down movement.
  • SIH relative standard error and 95% margin of error metadata are provided in data/sih_estimate_quality.csv; users should interpret with caution when estimates have high RSE values.
  • SIH estimates with a relative standard error above 50% are flagged as too unreliable for general use but are displayed rather than suppressed; no sampling-error propagation is performed on derived indices, so derived ratios and scores carry no published confidence intervals.
  • Chart-level reliability markers (†) are driven by data/sih_estimate_quality.csv where matching SIH RSE metadata is available.
  • Where available, visible error bars and interval hover text use 95% margin-of-error metadata from data/sih_estimate_quality.csv.
  • Gross-income SIH cost ratios, NHHA lower-income rental stress and modelled market-entry scenarios should not be interpreted as the same concept.
  • Recent buyer empirical evidence comes from SIH File 9 and should not be interpreted as a current advertised-price or new-loan measure.
Release Provenance
  • Run pipeline/05_driver.R to refresh local SIH, ABS and RBA-derived CSV outputs.
  • Run pipeline/06_validate_outputs.R to gate required schemas, source series and minimum row counts.
  • data/data_vintage.csv records the last successful refresh time and observation-period coverage.
  • The app reads saved data/*.csv outputs at launch.
  • R/indicator_registry.R documents derived indicator formulas, source series, units and interpretation direction.
Unresolved Core Data Gaps

Official-source audit registry. Documents unresolved high-value source gaps before any new ingestion. Candidate status means the source needs acceptance before it becomes a dashboard data feed.

Household disposable income, new-tenancy or advertised rents, and residual income / living costs remain source-audit items, not implemented data feeds.

  • Household disposable income
  • New-tenancy or advertised rents
  • Residual income / living costs

Rows marked candidate are plausible sources for later implementation. Rows marked not suitable yet should remain context only until the concept and coverage match the dashboard question.